Trader consensus pins nearly 100% implied probability on a 28°C high temperature in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data confirming the maximum reached 28°C amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the Meiyu season's early onset. Overcast skies suppressed solar heating, aligning with forecast models projecting a 26–28°C daytime range rather than typical mid-May highs near 29–30°C, as frontal activity and moist southerly flows limited convective heating. Historical analogs for May 15 show averages around 28–29°C, but current conditions match the lower end. Final CWA daily report could confirm resolution, though a late-afternoon clearing for a brief 29°C spike remains a slim scenario requiring rapid model divergence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on May 15?
Highest temperature in Taipei on May 15?
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$66,017 交易量
$66,017 交易量
2026-05-15
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$66,017 交易量
$66,017 交易量
2026-05-15
21°C or below
$1,028 交易量
No
22°C
$1,934 交易量
No
23°C
$1,782 交易量
No
24°C
$4,390 交易量
No
25°C
$3,751 交易量
No
26°C
$12,856 交易量
No
27°C
$4,197 交易量
No
28°C
$12,433 交易量
Yes
29°C
$6,023 交易量
No
30°C
$6,930 交易量
No
31°C or higher
$10,694 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus pins nearly 100% implied probability on a 28°C high temperature in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data confirming the maximum reached 28°C amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the Meiyu season's early onset. Overcast skies suppressed solar heating, aligning with forecast models projecting a 26–28°C daytime range rather than typical mid-May highs near 29–30°C, as frontal activity and moist southerly flows limited convective heating. Historical analogs for May 15 show averages around 28–29°C, but current conditions match the lower end. Final CWA daily report could confirm resolution, though a late-afternoon clearing for a brief 29°C spike remains a slim scenario requiring rapid model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
交易量
$66,017结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus pins nearly 100% implied probability on a 28°C high temperature in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data confirming the maximum reached 28°C amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the Meiyu season's early onset. Overcast skies suppressed solar heating, aligning with forecast models projecting a 26–28°C daytime range rather than typical mid-May highs near 29–30°C, as frontal activity and moist southerly flows limited convective heating. Historical analogs for May 15 show averages around 28–29°C, but current conditions match the lower end. Final CWA daily report could confirm resolution, though a late-afternoon clearing for a brief 29°C spike remains a slim scenario requiring rapid model divergence.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$66,017结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:15 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus pins nearly 100% implied probability on a 28°C high temperature in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data confirming the maximum reached 28°C amid persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the Meiyu season's early onset. Overcast skies suppressed solar heating, aligning with forecast models projecting a 26–28°C daytime range rather than typical mid-May highs near 29–30°C, as frontal activity and moist southerly flows limited convective heating. Historical analogs for May 15 show averages around 28–29°C, but current conditions match the lower end. Final CWA daily report could confirm resolution, though a late-afternoon clearing for a brief 29°C spike remains a slim scenario requiring rapid model divergence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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