Recent forecast guidance from regional models indicates Cape Town will experience typical mid-May autumn conditions, with a strong Atlantic high-pressure ridge promoting light southerly winds and mostly clear skies that favor daytime highs near 21–22 °C. These temperatures sit just above the long-term May climatological average of 19–20 °C, reflecting a modest positive anomaly driven by reduced cloud cover and warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures offshore. Small differences in the precise strength and timing of the onshore flow, or the development of any shallow afternoon sea breeze, are the key variables separating the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes that currently dominate trader sentiment. Updated runs from the South African Weather Service and global ensembles expected over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of the Monday observation window.