Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts position Seoul’s May 17 maximum near 24–25 °C under southerly warm advection beneath a strengthening high-pressure ridge. This places the market’s leading implied probabilities—split nearly evenly between the 25 °C and 26 °C-or-higher buckets—squarely in the range of normal May variability. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of an approaching short-wave trough, which could enhance mixing and cap afternoon peaks, versus sustained clear skies that would allow greater boundary-layer warming. Official resolution hinges on the Incheon International Airport station reading shortly after local sunset, where even a 1–2 °C shift from cloud cover or wind changes can separate the closely contested outcomes.