Recent ensemble model guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) points to a continued influx of cool maritime air under moderate northwesterly winds, with scattered showers and only intermittent cloud breaks expected through May 18. This pattern has kept afternoon highs near or slightly below the seasonal climatological range of 16–18 °C, producing the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 14–16 °C. Key variables that will differentiate outcomes include the precise timing and extent of any afternoon clearing, which could allow brief warming spikes, versus sustained overcast conditions that would cap the peak. Updated hourly observations from Schiphol Airport and the next ECMWF model cycle will provide the clearest signals ahead of market resolution.