Current ensemble forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models indicate Panama City highs of 31–33 °C for May 18, placing the 33 °C-or-higher outcome at the top of trader consensus with a 45.5 % implied probability. Late-May climatology favors this range as the wet season begins, with rising humidity and afternoon convection often capping maxima near 32 °C while occasional breaks in cloud cover allow brief spikes above 33 °C. Historical observations from the Marcos A. Gelabert station show May highs averaging 31–32 °C, with recent early-May readings frequently touching 34–35 °C under similar conditions. Updated model guidance and next-day observational data will determine whether probabilities shift toward the 32 °C or 31 °C buckets.