Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecast runs project an overnight low of 17°C for Tokyo on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns closely with mid-May climatology, where observed minima typically cluster between 14°C and 17°C, and current ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around that central value. Traders have therefore assigned 97.5% implied probability to the 17°C outcome, reflecting strong model consensus and the narrow historical distribution for the date. A realistic challenge would require either a sharper-than-expected drop in dew points or an unanticipated clear-sky window that enhances surface cooling, potentially shifting the official minimum into the 16°C bracket once the Japan Meteorological Agency records the daily low at the Tokyo station.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月16日东京最低气温？
5月16日东京最低气温？
17°C 97.5%
16°C 1.1%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
$64,761 交易量
$64,761 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
98%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C或更高
<1%
17°C 97.5%
16°C 1.1%
13°C或以下 <1%
14°C <1%
$64,761 交易量
$64,761 交易量
2026-05-16
13°C或以下
$5,158 交易量
<1%
14°C
$9,285 交易量
<1%
15°C
$8,019 交易量
<1%
16°C
$2,510 交易量
1%
17°C
$2,831 交易量
98%
18°C
$2,787 交易量
<1%
19°C
$12,509 交易量
<1%
20°C
$13,438 交易量
<1%
21°C
$523 交易量
<1%
22°C
$779 交易量
<1%
23°C或更高
$6,921 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecast runs project an overnight low of 17°C for Tokyo on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns closely with mid-May climatology, where observed minima typically cluster between 14°C and 17°C, and current ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around that central value. Traders have therefore assigned 97.5% implied probability to the 17°C outcome, reflecting strong model consensus and the narrow historical distribution for the date. A realistic challenge would require either a sharper-than-expected drop in dew points or an unanticipated clear-sky window that enhances surface cooling, potentially shifting the official minimum into the 16°C bracket once the Japan Meteorological Agency records the daily low at the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$64,761结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecast runs project an overnight low of 17°C for Tokyo on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns closely with mid-May climatology, where observed minima typically cluster between 14°C and 17°C, and current ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around that central value. Traders have therefore assigned 97.5% implied probability to the 17°C outcome, reflecting strong model consensus and the narrow historical distribution for the date. A realistic challenge would require either a sharper-than-expected drop in dew points or an unanticipated clear-sky window that enhances surface cooling, potentially shifting the official minimum into the 16°C bracket once the Japan Meteorological Agency records the daily low at the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$64,761结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecast runs project an overnight low of 17°C for Tokyo on May 16 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow that limits radiative cooling. This aligns closely with mid-May climatology, where observed minima typically cluster between 14°C and 17°C, and current ensemble guidance shows minimal spread around that central value. Traders have therefore assigned 97.5% implied probability to the 17°C outcome, reflecting strong model consensus and the narrow historical distribution for the date. A realistic challenge would require either a sharper-than-expected drop in dew points or an unanticipated clear-sky window that enhances surface cooling, potentially shifting the official minimum into the 16°C bracket once the Japan Meteorological Agency records the daily low at the Tokyo station.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题