Strong scientific consensus from global forecast models supports the 83.5% market-implied probability for a May 17 high of 37 °C or higher in Jeddah. Late-May climatology along the Red Sea coast features rising surface temperatures driven by intense solar insolation, light northwesterly flow that reduces sea-breeze moderation, and reinforcement of dry continental air by subtropical high pressure. Recent surface observations from the preceding week recorded daily maxima of 37–41 °C under comparable synoptic patterns, aligning with the National Center for Meteorology’s May baseline near 37 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around a 38–39 °C peak, with only modest cloud cover or a brief onshore wind shift capable of capping the maximum below 37 °C. The contract resolves on the official reading at King Abdulaziz International Airport, where historical extremes above 40 °C occur multiple times each May when boundary-layer mixing intensifies.