Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on May 16, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 14–16°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting peak heating. The slight edge to 15°C stems from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's latest outlook favoring moderate insolation under variable cloud cover, while 14°C gains from potential increased low-level moisture advection cooling surface layers, and 16°C from optimistic clearing scenarios boosting diurnal warming. Differentiating factors include model divergences on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island effects at the observing station; new 12z runs today could shift probabilities further, with resolution hinging on observed max before midnight local time. Typical mid-May highs average 17°C, but autumnal cool fronts add variability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月16日布宜诺斯艾利斯的最高温度?
5月16日布宜诺斯艾利斯的最高温度?
15°C 33%
14°C 22%
16°C 21%
17°C 8.3%
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
22%
15°C
33%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C或更高
1%
15°C 33%
14°C 22%
16°C 21%
17°C 8.3%
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
22%
15°C
33%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C或更高
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in short-range forecast models for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on May 16, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 14–16°C amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds limiting peak heating. The slight edge to 15°C stems from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional's latest outlook favoring moderate insolation under variable cloud cover, while 14°C gains from potential increased low-level moisture advection cooling surface layers, and 16°C from optimistic clearing scenarios boosting diurnal warming. Differentiating factors include model divergences on boundary layer mixing and urban heat island effects at the observing station; new 12z runs today could shift probabilities further, with resolution hinging on observed max before midnight local time. Typical mid-May highs average 17°C, but autumnal cool fronts add variability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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