Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月19日上海最低气温？
5月19日上海最低气温？
21°C 25%
20°C 25%
22°C 22%
16°C或以下 20%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
16°C或以下
20%
17°C
5%
18°C
8%
19°C
20%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
22%
23°C
12%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C或更高
1%
21°C 25%
20°C 25%
22°C 22%
16°C或以下 20%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
16°C或以下
$18 交易量
20%
17°C
$0 交易量
5%
18°C
$0 交易量
8%
19°C
$0 交易量
20%
20°C
$0 交易量
25%
21°C
$0 交易量
25%
22°C
$0 交易量
22%
23°C
$0 交易量
12%
24°C
$0 交易量
5%
25°C
$76 交易量
5%
26°C或更高
$18 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$112结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$112结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 49.5% implied probability for Shanghai's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 16°C or below, reflecting the lower end of ensemble spreads from GFS and ECMWF models amid forecast uncertainty four days out. Recent Shanghai Meteorological Bureau observations show mid-May overnight lows averaging 18–19°C this week under variable cloud cover, but a projected weak upper trough and potential northerly flow could suppress minima toward climatological norms of 17°C for this date. Exact outcomes like 19–21°C trail at 19.5% each due to resolution on precise degree from official Xujiahui station readings. Watch CMA daily bulletins and ECMWF 12z updates for shifts in model consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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