Trader consensus for Shenzhen's May 17 peak temperature clusters tightly around 26–28°C, with those three outcomes holding 84.5% of implied probability combined. This narrow spread reflects current ensemble model disagreement in the subtropical spring transition, where a weakening subtropical high allows southerly flow to advect warm, moist air from the South China Sea while scattered convection and variable cloud cover from a passing frontal boundary moderate surface heating. China Meteorological Administration guidance and international runs show slight differences in boundary-layer mixing and afternoon insolation, keeping the most likely daily maximum near the historical May average of 27°C. Updated model outputs and local observations over the next 24 hours will likely narrow the range before resolution.