Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a maximum temperature range of 13–15 °C for London today, driving the tight clustering of implied probabilities around 14 °C and 15 °C. A slow-moving Atlantic frontal system and increased cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, while light northwesterly winds reduce the urban heat-island effect that typically adds 1–2 °C in central districts. These conditions sit slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 16–17 °C, yet remain within normal variability for spring. Model spread is modest, but small shifts in timing of any clearing or frontal passage could still nudge the observed high by a degree either way before official resolution.