Current forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a developing low-pressure system delivering heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Shenzhen today, sharply limiting solar insolation and capping the daytime maximum near 26°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the official resolution station. This synoptic setup deviates from mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C under clearer skies, explaining the overwhelming 98.8% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. High humidity near 80% and moderating southerly flows further suppress surface heating, with ensemble models showing tight consensus around this outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing late in the day that could briefly boost temperatures to 27°C, though recent model runs show no such trend before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 16?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 16?
26°C 98.8%
27°C 1.2%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$58,147 交易量
$58,147 交易量
2026-05-16
26°C
99%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 98.8%
27°C 1.2%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$58,147 交易量
$58,147 交易量
2026-05-16
26°C
$14,375 交易量
99%
27°C
$6,544 交易量
1%
28°C
$9,002 交易量
<1%
29°C
$5,995 交易量
<1%
30°C or higher
$8,475 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a developing low-pressure system delivering heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Shenzhen today, sharply limiting solar insolation and capping the daytime maximum near 26°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the official resolution station. This synoptic setup deviates from mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C under clearer skies, explaining the overwhelming 98.8% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. High humidity near 80% and moderating southerly flows further suppress surface heating, with ensemble models showing tight consensus around this outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing late in the day that could briefly boost temperatures to 27°C, though recent model runs show no such trend before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
交易量
$58,147结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a developing low-pressure system delivering heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Shenzhen today, sharply limiting solar insolation and capping the daytime maximum near 26°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the official resolution station. This synoptic setup deviates from mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C under clearer skies, explaining the overwhelming 98.8% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. High humidity near 80% and moderating southerly flows further suppress surface heating, with ensemble models showing tight consensus around this outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing late in the day that could briefly boost temperatures to 27°C, though recent model runs show no such trend before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$58,147结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:18 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration indicate a developing low-pressure system delivering heavy rainfall and extensive cloud cover over Shenzhen today, sharply limiting solar insolation and capping the daytime maximum near 26°C at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport—the official resolution station. This synoptic setup deviates from mid-May climatology, where average highs reach 29–31°C under clearer skies, explaining the overwhelming 98.8% market-implied probability for exactly 26°C. High humidity near 80% and moderating southerly flows further suppress surface heating, with ensemble models showing tight consensus around this outcome. Realistic challenges include unexpected partial clearing late in the day that could briefly boost temperatures to 27°C, though recent model runs show no such trend before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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