Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月16日上海最低气温？
5月16日上海最低气温？
19°C 37%
20°C 37%
18°C 22%
17°C 2.8%
$13,438 交易量
$13,438 交易量
2026-05-16
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
22%
19°C
40%
20°C
50%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C或更高
<1%
19°C 37%
20°C 37%
18°C 22%
17°C 2.8%
$13,438 交易量
$13,438 交易量
2026-05-16
14°C或以下
$2,880 交易量
<1%
15°C
$2,800 交易量
1%
16°C
$907 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,632 交易量
3%
18°C
$262 交易量
22%
19°C
$151 交易量
40%
20°C
$163 交易量
50%
21°C
$108 交易量
1%
22°C
$358 交易量
<1%
23°C
$968 交易量
1%
24°C或更高
$3,209 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$13,438结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$13,438结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin forecast model agreement for Shanghai's May 16 minimum temperature, with GFS and ECMWF ensembles clustering around 19°C amid partly cloudy overnight conditions and mild southerly winds that limit radiative cooling. Leading outcomes at 33.5% for 19°C, 32.5% for 18°C, and 30% for 20°C capture this uncertainty, as slight variations in cloud cover evolution or urban heat island amplification from Shanghai Pudong's dense surroundings could tip the official reading by 1–2°C. High humidity near 80% further moderates drops below 18°C, diverging from May climatological lows of 16–17°C. Watch evening soundings and dawn observations for shifts ahead of resolution based on China Meteorological Administration data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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