Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月19日东京最低气温？
5月19日东京最低气温？
24°C或更高 67%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
14°C或以下
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
5%
17°C
14%
18°C
19%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
20%
22°C
17%
23°C
5%
24°C或更高
67%
24°C或更高 67%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
14°C或以下
$5 交易量
1%
15°C
$0 交易量
5%
16°C
$0 交易量
5%
17°C
$0 交易量
14%
18°C
$0 交易量
19%
19°C
$0 交易量
24%
20°C
$0 交易量
24%
21°C
$0 交易量
20%
22°C
$0 交易量
17%
23°C
$0 交易量
5%
24°C或更高
$55 交易量
67%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$60结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$60结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题