The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued May 14, projects Tokyo's minimum temperature at Haneda Airport station on May 15 precisely at 14°C—aligning with the mid-May climatological normal of 14.7°C and driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge promotes clear skies overnight, fostering radiative cooling toward the dew point under light winds and under 10% precipitation odds, with ensemble model runs from JMA and international sources converging tightly on this value; current early-morning observations further bolster the projection. Realistic challenges include lingering clouds trapping heat to elevate the low to 15°C or more, or excessive clearing yielding a dip to 13°C—both low-probability deviations given the tight forecast uncertainty range. Final JMA data release later today will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5月15日东京最低气温？
5月15日东京最低气温？
14°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$20,680 交易量
$20,680 交易量
2026-05-15
12°C或以下
否
13°C
否
14°C
是
15°C
否
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C或更高
否
14°C 100.0%
12°C或以下 <1%
13°C <1%
15°C <1%
$20,680 交易量
$20,680 交易量
2026-05-15
12°C或以下
$3,046 交易量
否
13°C
$6,891 交易量
否
14°C
$2,555 交易量
是
15°C
$1,069 交易量
否
16°C
$1,062 交易量
否
17°C
$1,387 交易量
否
18°C
$1,629 交易量
否
19°C
$1,235 交易量
否
20°C
$565 交易量
否
21°C
$874 交易量
否
22°C或更高
$366 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued May 14, projects Tokyo's minimum temperature at Haneda Airport station on May 15 precisely at 14°C—aligning with the mid-May climatological normal of 14.7°C and driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge promotes clear skies overnight, fostering radiative cooling toward the dew point under light winds and under 10% precipitation odds, with ensemble model runs from JMA and international sources converging tightly on this value; current early-morning observations further bolster the projection. Realistic challenges include lingering clouds trapping heat to elevate the low to 15°C or more, or excessive clearing yielding a dip to 13°C—both low-probability deviations given the tight forecast uncertainty range. Final JMA data release later today will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$20,680结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued May 14, projects Tokyo's minimum temperature at Haneda Airport station on May 15 precisely at 14°C—aligning with the mid-May climatological normal of 14.7°C and driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge promotes clear skies overnight, fostering radiative cooling toward the dew point under light winds and under 10% precipitation odds, with ensemble model runs from JMA and international sources converging tightly on this value; current early-morning observations further bolster the projection. Realistic challenges include lingering clouds trapping heat to elevate the low to 15°C or more, or excessive clearing yielding a dip to 13°C—both low-probability deviations given the tight forecast uncertainty range. Final JMA data release later today will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$20,680结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 11, 2026, 7:07 PM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
The Japan Meteorological Agency's latest forecast, issued May 14, projects Tokyo's minimum temperature at Haneda Airport station on May 15 precisely at 14°C—aligning with the mid-May climatological normal of 14.7°C and driving near-unanimous trader consensus at 100% implied probability for this outcome. A stable high-pressure ridge promotes clear skies overnight, fostering radiative cooling toward the dew point under light winds and under 10% precipitation odds, with ensemble model runs from JMA and international sources converging tightly on this value; current early-morning observations further bolster the projection. Realistic challenges include lingering clouds trapping heat to elevate the low to 15°C or more, or excessive clearing yielding a dip to 13°C—both low-probability deviations given the tight forecast uncertainty range. Final JMA data release later today will resolve the market.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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