Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Milan’s daytime maximum today clustered tightly between 20–22 °C, explaining the narrow spread in market-implied probabilities across those buckets. Short-term uncertainty arises mainly from variable low-level cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing over the Po Valley, where Milan’s urban heat island can locally boost readings by 1–2 °C. Stable synoptic conditions and the absence of strong frontal systems keep the envelope narrow, with official station data expected to settle the exact peak by late afternoon. Any revised model guidance issued in the next 6–12 hours could shift the balance among the leading outcomes before resolution.