Recent ensemble guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System points to a daytime maximum of 21–22 °C in Milan on May 17 as the most probable outcome, reflecting modest afternoon warming under partly cloudy skies in the Po Valley. A residual low-pressure trough over northern Italy continues to limit full solar heating through scattered showers and northerly airflow, keeping values near or slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 22 °C. Model spread arises primarily from differences in predicted cloud-break timing and boundary-layer moisture, with ECMWF favoring slightly cooler solutions and GFS ensembles allowing brief sun exposure that could nudge readings toward 22 °C. Hourly observations from Milano Linate will resolve the exact peak once the day’s maximum is confirmed.