Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (37.5% implied probability) and 15°C (34.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight alignment in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours, which forecast peaks in the mid-teens amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly airflow over Poland. This setup suppresses solar insolation and diurnal heating, a departure from May climatological averages near 19°C, following a week of frosty nights and dynamic weather patterns noted by IMGW. Key differentiators include potential for partial afternoon clearing favoring 15°C versus thicker overcast or stronger winds capping at 14°C; new model runs expected this evening could refine the outlook ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
14°C 46%
15°C 22%
13°C 22%
12°C or below 6.7%
最新
$14,144 交易量
最新
$14,144 交易量
2026-05-16
12°C or below
7%
13°C
22%
14°C
46%
15°C
22%
16°C
5%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 46%
15°C 22%
13°C 22%
12°C or below 6.7%
最新
$14,144 交易量
最新
$14,144 交易量
2026-05-16
12°C or below
$1,672 交易量
7%
13°C
$1,710 交易量
22%
14°C
$1,483 交易量
46%
15°C
$1,641 交易量
22%
16°C
$1,502 交易量
5%
17°C
$551 交易量
1%
18°C
$467 交易量
1%
19°C
$1,482 交易量
1%
20°C
$1,915 交易量
<1%
21°C
$806 交易量
<1%
22°C or higher
$920 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (37.5% implied probability) and 15°C (34.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight alignment in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours, which forecast peaks in the mid-teens amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly airflow over Poland. This setup suppresses solar insolation and diurnal heating, a departure from May climatological averages near 19°C, following a week of frosty nights and dynamic weather patterns noted by IMGW. Key differentiators include potential for partial afternoon clearing favoring 15°C versus thicker overcast or stronger winds capping at 14°C; new model runs expected this evening could refine the outlook ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$14,144结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (37.5% implied probability) and 15°C (34.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight alignment in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours, which forecast peaks in the mid-teens amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly airflow over Poland. This setup suppresses solar insolation and diurnal heating, a departure from May climatological averages near 19°C, following a week of frosty nights and dynamic weather patterns noted by IMGW. Key differentiators include potential for partial afternoon clearing favoring 15°C versus thicker overcast or stronger winds capping at 14°C; new model runs expected this evening could refine the outlook ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station measurements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$14,144结束日期
2026-05-16市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C (37.5% implied probability) and 15°C (34.0%) as Warsaw's highest temperature on May 16, reflecting tight alignment in the latest ECMWF and GFS model ensembles from the past 24 hours, which forecast peaks in the mid-teens amid persistent cloud cover and cool northerly airflow over Poland. This setup suppresses solar insolation and diurnal heating, a departure from May climatological averages near 19°C, following a week of frosty nights and dynamic weather patterns noted by IMGW. Key differentiators include potential for partial afternoon clearing favoring 15°C versus thicker overcast or stronger winds capping at 14°C; new model runs expected this evening could refine the outlook ahead of resolution via official Warsaw station measurements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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