Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 20°C at 41% implied probability for Warsaw on May 15, driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) forecast projecting a daytime peak of 20°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southeast. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models align closely, showing maximums clustered 19–21°C with low spread, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs based on decades of Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Recent IMGW weekly outlook from May 12 highlighted regional warming to 23–24°C eastward, shifting odds upward from cooler prior days; however, lingering overnight lows near 6–8°C underscore typical spring diurnal variability. Real-time station data and afternoon soundings will refine resolution as the market nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
20°C 44%
19°C 31%
21°C 20%
18°C 5.1%
$35,481 交易量
$35,481 交易量
2026-05-15
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
5%
19°C
31%
20°C
44%
21°C
20%
22°C
2%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 44%
19°C 31%
21°C 20%
18°C 5.1%
$35,481 交易量
$35,481 交易量
2026-05-15
15°C or below
$2,918 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,379 交易量
<1%
17°C
$3,190 交易量
<1%
18°C
$3,883 交易量
5%
19°C
$5,067 交易量
31%
20°C
$2,628 交易量
44%
21°C
$3,790 交易量
20%
22°C
$3,429 交易量
2%
23°C
$6,209 交易量
<1%
24°C
$2,010 交易量
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,381 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 20°C at 41% implied probability for Warsaw on May 15, driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) forecast projecting a daytime peak of 20°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southeast. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models align closely, showing maximums clustered 19–21°C with low spread, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs based on decades of Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Recent IMGW weekly outlook from May 12 highlighted regional warming to 23–24°C eastward, shifting odds upward from cooler prior days; however, lingering overnight lows near 6–8°C underscore typical spring diurnal variability. Real-time station data and afternoon soundings will refine resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
交易量
$35,481结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 20°C at 41% implied probability for Warsaw on May 15, driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) forecast projecting a daytime peak of 20°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southeast. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models align closely, showing maximums clustered 19–21°C with low spread, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs based on decades of Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Recent IMGW weekly outlook from May 12 highlighted regional warming to 23–24°C eastward, shifting odds upward from cooler prior days; however, lingering overnight lows near 6–8°C underscore typical spring diurnal variability. Real-time station data and afternoon soundings will refine resolution as the market nears close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$35,481结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 20°C at 41% implied probability for Warsaw on May 15, driven by the latest Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB) forecast projecting a daytime peak of 20°C amid a mild high-pressure ridge fostering warm advection from the southeast. ECMWF and GFS ensemble models align closely, showing maximums clustered 19–21°C with low spread, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C highs based on decades of Warsaw Chopin Airport observations. Recent IMGW weekly outlook from May 12 highlighted regional warming to 23–24°C eastward, shifting odds upward from cooler prior days; however, lingering overnight lows near 6–8°C underscore typical spring diurnal variability. Real-time station data and afternoon soundings will refine resolution as the market nears close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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