Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and multiple models indicate a nighttime minimum of 24–25 °C for Tokyo on August 23, with partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and scattered showers expected to limit radiative cooling. High humidity (often above 80 % overnight) and persistent cloud cover trap heat near the surface, preventing the sharper drops seen under clear conditions. These values sit near or slightly above the long-term August average low of ~23 °C. Market odds, led by 25 °C at 48 % and 24 °C at 31 %, closely track this consensus, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers that would require unexpected clearing or stronger onshore flow. Updated model runs and official briefings through the evening of August 22 will be the key near-term drivers.