Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 22, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, light southerly flow, and persistent subtropical high pressure. These conditions, combined with humidity above 75% and the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth, strongly limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows clustered near seasonal norms of 23–25°C. Market-implied odds favor 25°C as the most probable outcome because recent model runs show limited variability and no major frontal systems or typhoon influences to alter the pattern before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and fresh observational data expected on August 21 will provide the next key input for traders assessing any shifts in the 24–26°C range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月22日东京气温最低？
8月22日东京气温最低？
25°C 47%
26°C 28%
27°C 10%
24°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
21°C或以下
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
7%
24°C
9%
25°C
47%
26°C
28%
27°C
10%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 28%
27°C 10%
24°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
21°C或以下
$5 交易量
1%
22°C
$0 交易量
5%
23°C
$0 交易量
7%
24°C
$15 交易量
9%
25°C
$16 交易量
47%
26°C
$0 交易量
28%
27°C
$20 交易量
10%
28°C
$5 交易量
8%
29°C
$5 交易量
1%
30°C
$0 交易量
<1%
31°C或更高
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 22, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, light southerly flow, and persistent subtropical high pressure. These conditions, combined with humidity above 75% and the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth, strongly limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows clustered near seasonal norms of 23–25°C. Market-implied odds favor 25°C as the most probable outcome because recent model runs show limited variability and no major frontal systems or typhoon influences to alter the pattern before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and fresh observational data expected on August 21 will provide the next key input for traders assessing any shifts in the 24–26°C range.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
交易量
$67结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 22, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, light southerly flow, and persistent subtropical high pressure. These conditions, combined with humidity above 75% and the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth, strongly limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows clustered near seasonal norms of 23–25°C. Market-implied odds favor 25°C as the most probable outcome because recent model runs show limited variability and no major frontal systems or typhoon influences to alter the pattern before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and fresh observational data expected on August 21 will provide the next key input for traders assessing any shifts in the 24–26°C range.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$67结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:28 AM ETRecent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble models indicate a minimum temperature of 24–25°C for Tokyo on August 22, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, light southerly flow, and persistent subtropical high pressure. These conditions, combined with humidity above 75% and the urban heat island effect that retains daytime warmth, strongly limit nocturnal radiative cooling and keep overnight lows clustered near seasonal norms of 23–25°C. Market-implied odds favor 25°C as the most probable outcome because recent model runs show limited variability and no major frontal systems or typhoon influences to alter the pattern before resolution. Updated JMA guidance and fresh observational data expected on August 21 will provide the next key input for traders assessing any shifts in the 24–26°C range.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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