Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a Tokyo overnight low near the 21.1 °C July normal, with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect adds a modest warming bias. These conditions produce tight clustering around 21–22 °C in the market, with 23 °C or higher priced lower due to limited daytime heating carry-over and 20 °C or below discounted by the absence of clear-sky advection of cooler air. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the balance between cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 2?
22°C 48%
21°C 39%
23°C 31%
24°C 31%
17°C or below
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
30%
20°C
28%
21°C
39%
22°C
48%
23°C
31%
24°C
31%
25°C
28%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
2%
22°C 48%
21°C 39%
23°C 31%
24°C 31%
17°C or below
6%
18°C
9%
19°C
30%
20°C
28%
21°C
39%
22°C
48%
23°C
31%
24°C
31%
25°C
28%
26°C
2%
27°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间: Jun 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current short-range forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and regional models indicate a Tokyo overnight low near the 21.1 °C July normal, with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers expected to limit radiative cooling. High humidity and light winds further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect adds a modest warming bias. These conditions produce tight clustering around 21–22 °C in the market, with 23 °C or higher priced lower due to limited daytime heating carry-over and 20 °C or below discounted by the absence of clear-sky advection of cooler air. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will refine the balance between cloud thickness and boundary-layer mixing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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