The absence of qualifying triggers through mid-May underpins trader consensus that no major developments will meet resolution criteria by the end of the month. U.S. and Israeli forces have conducted no new strikes against Iran since early April, while the Federal Reserve has maintained steady rates amid ongoing inflation pressures without announcing cuts. Russia-Ukraine negotiations remain stalled without a ceasefire agreement, and no reports indicate Indian military incursions into Pakistan or a papal transition involving a Black successor. These factors, combined with limited scheduled policy actions or diplomatic summits capable of shifting conditions before May 31, align with the current pricing reflecting a strong expectation of continued stability across the monitored areas.