Trader consensus in the SC-01 Republican primary heavily favors state Rep. Mark Smith at 68.5% implied probability, driven by his April 17 GOP forum straw poll win with 34.1% support among attendees—edging Air Force veteran Alex Pelbath's 29.5% in the crowded 12-candidate field for this open seat vacated by Nancy Mace's gubernatorial bid. Smith's strong fundraising ($727,000 raised, $548,000 cash on hand as of March 31) and endorsements like state Sen. Tom Davis further solidify his frontrunner position ahead of the June 9 primary, where plurality likely suffices absent a majority triggering a June 23 runoff. Pelbath holds second at 19.5% on name recognition, but no new polls since the straw poll have altered sentiment, with others fragmented below 5%.