Scott Wiener’s substantial lead in recent polling and broad institutional support have solidified trader expectations that he will finish first in the June 2 primary for California’s 11th Congressional District. A San Francisco Chronicle survey conducted in late April and early May showed Wiener ahead by more than 20 points among likely Democratic voters, with strong backing across demographic groups, while Saikat Chakrabarti and Connie Chan remain closely matched for a distant second. The California Democratic Party’s endorsement of Wiener, combined with his fundraising advantage and record as a state senator, has further reinforced his position ahead of the top-two primary that will advance candidates to the November general election.