Recent University of Houston polling shows Christian Menefee maintaining a lead over Al Green in the May 26 Democratic runoff for Texas’ 18th Congressional District, where redistricting created a contest between two sitting members. Menefee’s edge builds on his March primary plurality and stronger performance in key Houston areas previously represented by Green, positioning him as the frontrunner in trader assessments. Green has highlighted his decades of seniority and record on key votes, while debates and attacks over attendance have drawn attention but produced little shift in surveys. Early voting begins May 18, leaving limited time for developments that could narrow the gap reflected in current market pricing.