Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 86.5% because even with 2025 executive orders and the new Part 53 framework accelerating NRC reviews to 18 months or less, no combined license or full operating license for a commercial new reactor has been granted in 2026. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s March construction permit for its Natrium reactor and various small modular reactor applications, yet these remain early-stage steps requiring separate safety and operating approvals. Focus has centered on DOE-led test reactor criticalities, license renewals for existing plants, and financing announcements rather than completed commercial licensing. Key upcoming catalysts include ongoing Part 53 reviews and potential decisions on Oklo or X-energy projects, but timelines suggest full grants are unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
14% 概率
$26,566 交易量
$26,566 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 概率
$26,566 交易量
$26,566 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 86.5% because even with 2025 executive orders and the new Part 53 framework accelerating NRC reviews to 18 months or less, no combined license or full operating license for a commercial new reactor has been granted in 2026. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s March construction permit for its Natrium reactor and various small modular reactor applications, yet these remain early-stage steps requiring separate safety and operating approvals. Focus has centered on DOE-led test reactor criticalities, license renewals for existing plants, and financing announcements rather than completed commercial licensing. Key upcoming catalysts include ongoing Part 53 reviews and potential decisions on Oklo or X-energy projects, but timelines suggest full grants are unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$26,566结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 86.5% because even with 2025 executive orders and the new Part 53 framework accelerating NRC reviews to 18 months or less, no combined license or full operating license for a commercial new reactor has been granted in 2026. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s March construction permit for its Natrium reactor and various small modular reactor applications, yet these remain early-stage steps requiring separate safety and operating approvals. Focus has centered on DOE-led test reactor criticalities, license renewals for existing plants, and financing announcements rather than completed commercial licensing. Key upcoming catalysts include ongoing Part 53 reviews and potential decisions on Oklo or X-energy projects, but timelines suggest full grants are unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,566结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETTrader sentiment heavily favors "No" at 86.5% because even with 2025 executive orders and the new Part 53 framework accelerating NRC reviews to 18 months or less, no combined license or full operating license for a commercial new reactor has been granted in 2026. Recent milestones include TerraPower’s March construction permit for its Natrium reactor and various small modular reactor applications, yet these remain early-stage steps requiring separate safety and operating approvals. Focus has centered on DOE-led test reactor criticalities, license renewals for existing plants, and financing announcements rather than completed commercial licensing. Key upcoming catalysts include ongoing Part 53 reviews and potential decisions on Oklo or X-energy projects, but timelines suggest full grants are unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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