Recent model projections from Carbon Brief and the UK Met Office place 2026 on track for a central estimate of 1.46–1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market’s 57.5 % implied probability for second place and 35 % for first. Weak La Niña conditions early in the year have modestly suppressed temperatures relative to the 2024 record, while a developing El Niño—now favored at 61–82 % probability by mid-2026—should drive warming through the second half. This ENSO transition, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes surpassing 2024 unlikely yet positions 2026 ahead of 2023 and 2025 in most ensembles. Traders appear to weight the substantial remaining uncertainty in El Niño strength and peak timing, which could shift outcomes within the top four but keeps lower ranks below 3 %.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,821,861 交易量
$2,821,861 交易量
2026-12-31
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6或以下
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,821,861 交易量
$2,821,861 交易量
2026-12-31
1
$453,744 交易量
35%
2
$325,828 交易量
57%
3
$428,662 交易量
2%
4
$416,579 交易量
3%
5
$732,047 交易量
1%
6或以下
$465,002 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent model projections from Carbon Brief and the UK Met Office place 2026 on track for a central estimate of 1.46–1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market’s 57.5 % implied probability for second place and 35 % for first. Weak La Niña conditions early in the year have modestly suppressed temperatures relative to the 2024 record, while a developing El Niño—now favored at 61–82 % probability by mid-2026—should drive warming through the second half. This ENSO transition, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes surpassing 2024 unlikely yet positions 2026 ahead of 2023 and 2025 in most ensembles. Traders appear to weight the substantial remaining uncertainty in El Niño strength and peak timing, which could shift outcomes within the top four but keeps lower ranks below 3 %.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,821,861结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent model projections from Carbon Brief and the UK Met Office place 2026 on track for a central estimate of 1.46–1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market’s 57.5 % implied probability for second place and 35 % for first. Weak La Niña conditions early in the year have modestly suppressed temperatures relative to the 2024 record, while a developing El Niño—now favored at 61–82 % probability by mid-2026—should drive warming through the second half. This ENSO transition, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes surpassing 2024 unlikely yet positions 2026 ahead of 2023 and 2025 in most ensembles. Traders appear to weight the substantial remaining uncertainty in El Niño strength and peak timing, which could shift outcomes within the top four but keeps lower ranks below 3 %.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,821,861结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent model projections from Carbon Brief and the UK Met Office place 2026 on track for a central estimate of 1.46–1.47 °C above pre-industrial levels, aligning with the market’s 57.5 % implied probability for second place and 35 % for first. Weak La Niña conditions early in the year have modestly suppressed temperatures relative to the 2024 record, while a developing El Niño—now favored at 61–82 % probability by mid-2026—should drive warming through the second half. This ENSO transition, superimposed on the long-term anthropogenic trend, makes surpassing 2024 unlikely yet positions 2026 ahead of 2023 and 2025 in most ensembles. Traders appear to weight the substantial remaining uncertainty in El Niño strength and peak timing, which could shift outcomes within the top four but keeps lower ranks below 3 %.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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