Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases in early 2026 have driven the 71.9% implied probability by delivering leading results on SWE-bench Verified and strong agentic coding capabilities, including extended autonomous sessions and natural long-form output that appeal to developers and enterprises. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 22.0% odds through competitive benchmark leadership in areas such as GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, supported by efficient multimodal performance and stable pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released in late April, contributes to its lower 4.5% positioning despite broad knowledge gains, as traders weigh it against faster-moving competitors in specialized workflows. The market reflects trader consensus on these verified capability edges heading into June, with potential shifts from any new model updates or independent evaluations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 71.9%
谷歌 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,008,164 交易量
$6,008,164 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
72%
谷歌
22%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 71.9%
谷歌 22%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 1.1%
$6,008,164 交易量
$6,008,164 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$845,906 交易量
72%
谷歌
$546,706 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$343,483 交易量
5%
xAI
$1,067,620 交易量
1%
Meta
$136,780 交易量
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$504,482 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$163,552 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$303,582 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$483,603 交易量
<1%
微软
$156,701 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$160,168 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$383,399 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$364,309 交易量
<1%
美团
$382,390 交易量
<1%
百度
$165,484 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases in early 2026 have driven the 71.9% implied probability by delivering leading results on SWE-bench Verified and strong agentic coding capabilities, including extended autonomous sessions and natural long-form output that appeal to developers and enterprises. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 22.0% odds through competitive benchmark leadership in areas such as GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, supported by efficient multimodal performance and stable pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released in late April, contributes to its lower 4.5% positioning despite broad knowledge gains, as traders weigh it against faster-moving competitors in specialized workflows. The market reflects trader consensus on these verified capability edges heading into June, with potential shifts from any new model updates or independent evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$6,008,164结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases in early 2026 have driven the 71.9% implied probability by delivering leading results on SWE-bench Verified and strong agentic coding capabilities, including extended autonomous sessions and natural long-form output that appeal to developers and enterprises. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 22.0% odds through competitive benchmark leadership in areas such as GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, supported by efficient multimodal performance and stable pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released in late April, contributes to its lower 4.5% positioning despite broad knowledge gains, as traders weigh it against faster-moving competitors in specialized workflows. The market reflects trader consensus on these verified capability edges heading into June, with potential shifts from any new model updates or independent evaluations.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$6,008,164结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 releases in early 2026 have driven the 71.9% implied probability by delivering leading results on SWE-bench Verified and strong agentic coding capabilities, including extended autonomous sessions and natural long-form output that appeal to developers and enterprises. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro holds 22.0% odds through competitive benchmark leadership in areas such as GPQA Diamond and ARC-AGI-2, supported by efficient multimodal performance and stable pricing. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5, released in late April, contributes to its lower 4.5% positioning despite broad knowledge gains, as traders weigh it against faster-moving competitors in specialized workflows. The market reflects trader consensus on these verified capability edges heading into June, with potential shifts from any new model updates or independent evaluations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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