Traders currently assign Anthropic a 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting leading scores on GPQA Diamond, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. These results reflect targeted advances in agentic coding and precise output quality that have narrowed the gap with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 14.5% amid slower momentum on developer-preferred tasks. Recent competitive releases from all three labs within weeks of one another have kept the ranking fluid, yet Anthropic’s consistent edge in enterprise coding workflows and lower hallucination rates on complex prompts continue to anchor market sentiment. Upcoming benchmark updates and any mid-June model refinements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 72%
谷歌 15%
OpenAI 9.1%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 交易量
$400,986 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
72%
谷歌
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
微软
1%
Meta
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美团
<1%
百度
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
Anthropic 72%
谷歌 15%
OpenAI 9.1%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 交易量
$400,986 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$14,717 交易量
72%
谷歌
$5,648 交易量
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 交易量
9%
xAI
$14,892 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 交易量
1%
微软
$5,685 交易量
1%
Meta
$4,186 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$6,636 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$4,922 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 交易量
<1%
美团
$34,087 交易量
<1%
百度
$4,429 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$5,557 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$2,909 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$4,734 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic a 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting leading scores on GPQA Diamond, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. These results reflect targeted advances in agentic coding and precise output quality that have narrowed the gap with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 14.5% amid slower momentum on developer-preferred tasks. Recent competitive releases from all three labs within weeks of one another have kept the ranking fluid, yet Anthropic’s consistent edge in enterprise coding workflows and lower hallucination rates on complex prompts continue to anchor market sentiment. Upcoming benchmark updates and any mid-June model refinements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$400,986结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders currently assign Anthropic a 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting leading scores on GPQA Diamond, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. These results reflect targeted advances in agentic coding and precise output quality that have narrowed the gap with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 14.5% amid slower momentum on developer-preferred tasks. Recent competitive releases from all three labs within weeks of one another have kept the ranking fluid, yet Anthropic’s consistent edge in enterprise coding workflows and lower hallucination rates on complex prompts continue to anchor market sentiment. Upcoming benchmark updates and any mid-June model refinements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$400,986结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders currently assign Anthropic a 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.6 and 4.7 variants posting leading scores on GPQA Diamond, SWE-Bench Verified, and long-context reasoning benchmarks. These results reflect targeted advances in agentic coding and precise output quality that have narrowed the gap with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family, while Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro trails at 14.5% amid slower momentum on developer-preferred tasks. Recent competitive releases from all three labs within weeks of one another have kept the ranking fluid, yet Anthropic’s consistent edge in enterprise coding workflows and lower hallucination rates on complex prompts continue to anchor market sentiment. Upcoming benchmark updates and any mid-June model refinements remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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