Recent releases of advanced large language models have driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 56.5% implied probability for securing the third-ranked position by end of June, with its Claude Opus 4.7 demonstrating strong capabilities in style adherence and controlled output generation that align with the market's specified criteria. Google follows at 34.0% amid ongoing Gemini 3.1 Pro refinements that close performance gaps in reasoning benchmarks, while lower-probability contenders like Alibaba and Meta reflect incremental updates without matching frontier-level style control. This positioning stems from mid-May 2026 benchmark shifts where Anthropic's models excelled in practical deployment metrics, though competitive launches from OpenAI and xAI could still alter the ranking ahead of the June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 13.6%
Meituan 7.6%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
Anthropic
57%
33%
Meta
14%
Meituan
8%
xAI
6%
DeepSeek
5%
OpenAI
5%
Amazon
4%
Mistral
3%
Alibaba
17%
Baidu
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
1%
Microsoft
8%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 50%
Google 23%
Meta 13.6%
Meituan 7.6%
最新
最新
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$309 交易量
57%
$416 交易量
33%
Meta
$126 交易量
14%
Meituan
$179 交易量
8%
xAI
$200 交易量
6%
DeepSeek
$186 交易量
5%
OpenAI
$250 交易量
5%
Amazon
$186 交易量
4%
Mistral
$186 交易量
3%
Alibaba
$186 交易量
17%
Baidu
$188 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$126 交易量
1%
ByteDance
$126 交易量
1%
Microsoft
$186 交易量
8%
Moonshot
$159 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of advanced large language models have driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 56.5% implied probability for securing the third-ranked position by end of June, with its Claude Opus 4.7 demonstrating strong capabilities in style adherence and controlled output generation that align with the market's specified criteria. Google follows at 34.0% amid ongoing Gemini 3.1 Pro refinements that close performance gaps in reasoning benchmarks, while lower-probability contenders like Alibaba and Meta reflect incremental updates without matching frontier-level style control. This positioning stems from mid-May 2026 benchmark shifts where Anthropic's models excelled in practical deployment metrics, though competitive launches from OpenAI and xAI could still alter the ranking ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
交易量
$3,009结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent releases of advanced large language models have driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 56.5% implied probability for securing the third-ranked position by end of June, with its Claude Opus 4.7 demonstrating strong capabilities in style adherence and controlled output generation that align with the market's specified criteria. Google follows at 34.0% amid ongoing Gemini 3.1 Pro refinements that close performance gaps in reasoning benchmarks, while lower-probability contenders like Alibaba and Meta reflect incremental updates without matching frontier-level style control. This positioning stems from mid-May 2026 benchmark shifts where Anthropic's models excelled in practical deployment metrics, though competitive launches from OpenAI and xAI could still alter the ranking ahead of the June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$3,009结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of advanced large language models have driven trader consensus toward Anthropic at 56.5% implied probability for securing the third-ranked position by end of June, with its Claude Opus 4.7 demonstrating strong capabilities in style adherence and controlled output generation that align with the market's specified criteria. Google follows at 34.0% amid ongoing Gemini 3.1 Pro refinements that close performance gaps in reasoning benchmarks, while lower-probability contenders like Alibaba and Meta reflect incremental updates without matching frontier-level style control. This positioning stems from mid-May 2026 benchmark shifts where Anthropic's models excelled in practical deployment metrics, though competitive launches from OpenAI and xAI could still alter the ranking ahead of the June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题