Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 67%
谷歌 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 交易量
$1,455,952 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
67%
谷歌
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
微软
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
美团
<1%
Mistral
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 67%
谷歌 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,952 交易量
$1,455,952 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$30,400 交易量
67%
谷歌
$18,356 交易量
22%
OpenAI
$49,319 交易量
6%
xAI
$14,949 交易量
3%
DeepSeek
$201,120 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$136,496 交易量
1%
微软
$11,868 交易量
1%
Meta
$8,140 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$412,881 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$203,349 交易量
1%
美团
$270,689 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$59,334 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$17,641 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$12,804 交易量
<1%
百度
$8,606 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,455,952结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,455,952结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders are assigning Anthropic a 67% implied probability of holding the top AI model by the end of June, reflecting its recent Claude releases that have shown clear advantages in controlled output and benchmark consistency over rivals. Google sits at 22% as the market prices in steady Gemini progress, while OpenAI’s 5.5% share and the single-digit odds for xAI, DeepSeek, and others capture the current competitive gap. Recent third-party evaluations continue to favor Anthropic’s large language model architecture for style adherence and reliability, reinforcing trader positioning ahead of expected summer updates. Any new capability demonstrations or independent leaderboard shifts in the next six weeks could quickly adjust these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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