Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6-8 44%
9-11 33%
12+ 14%
3-5 4.5%
$12,879 交易量
$12,879 交易量
2026-06-30
3-5
4%
6-8
44%
9-11
33%
12+
14%
6-8 44%
9-11 33%
12+ 14%
3-5 4.5%
$12,879 交易量
$12,879 交易量
2026-06-30
3-5
$4,244 交易量
4%
6-8
$1,423 交易量
44%
9-11
$1,884 交易量
33%
12+
$2,033 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
市场开放时间： May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$12,879结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in June 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
交易量
$12,879结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
May 26, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent outages on June 2, 5, 7, and 13 have positioned 6-8 days of Claude downtime as the market's leading outcome at 43.5% implied probability. Anthropic's status page logged elevated errors and partial outages across Claude.ai, the API, Opus models, and the newer Claude Code platform, driven by infrastructure strain from surging usage and model scaling. These incidents echo earlier 2026 disruptions, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining reliability for frontier large language models amid rapid adoption. Traders appear to factor in continued high demand and potential follow-on issues through late June, while lower probabilities for 3-5 days reflect skepticism that the pattern will improve sharply.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题