Iran's theocratic legal system, grounded in Sharia and enforced through the Islamic Penal Code, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader, treats same-sex relations as criminal offenses carrying penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with marriage recognition. No legislative proposals, parliamentary action, or judicial signals have emerged to alter this framework amid ongoing wartime priorities under current leadership and conservative Majlis dominance. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no legalization by the December 2026 deadline reflects these structural and institutional realities, with recent protests and policy focus centered on security and economic pressures rather than rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transformation or major constitutional overhaul could shift the trajectory before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$79,273 交易量
$79,273 交易量
2026-12-31
是
2% 概率
$79,273 交易量
$79,273 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's theocratic legal system, grounded in Sharia and enforced through the Islamic Penal Code, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader, treats same-sex relations as criminal offenses carrying penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with marriage recognition. No legislative proposals, parliamentary action, or judicial signals have emerged to alter this framework amid ongoing wartime priorities under current leadership and conservative Majlis dominance. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no legalization by the December 2026 deadline reflects these structural and institutional realities, with recent protests and policy focus centered on security and economic pressures rather than rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transformation or major constitutional overhaul could shift the trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
交易量
$79,273结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's theocratic legal system, grounded in Sharia and enforced through the Islamic Penal Code, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader, treats same-sex relations as criminal offenses carrying penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with marriage recognition. No legislative proposals, parliamentary action, or judicial signals have emerged to alter this framework amid ongoing wartime priorities under current leadership and conservative Majlis dominance. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no legalization by the December 2026 deadline reflects these structural and institutional realities, with recent protests and policy focus centered on security and economic pressures rather than rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transformation or major constitutional overhaul could shift the trajectory before resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.
Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.
The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.
Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$79,273结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ETIran's theocratic legal system, grounded in Sharia and enforced through the Islamic Penal Code, Guardian Council, and Supreme Leader, treats same-sex relations as criminal offenses carrying penalties up to execution, creating fundamental incompatibility with marriage recognition. No legislative proposals, parliamentary action, or judicial signals have emerged to alter this framework amid ongoing wartime priorities under current leadership and conservative Majlis dominance. Trader consensus at 98.2% for no legalization by the December 2026 deadline reflects these structural and institutional realities, with recent protests and policy focus centered on security and economic pressures rather than rights expansion. Only an improbable regime transformation or major constitutional overhaul could shift the trajectory before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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