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icon for 伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?

伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?

icon for 伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?

伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?

2% 概率
Polymarket

$47,056 交易量

2% 概率
Polymarket

$47,056 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code and constitutional commitment to Sharia law continue to define marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman, with same-sex relations remaining criminalized and subject to severe penalties including death. This framework, reinforced by official statements and ongoing enforcement, underpins trader consensus that legalization is improbable within any foreseeable timeframe. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or policy shifts have emerged in recent years to alter these provisions. Realistic scenarios that could still influence the outcome include a fundamental change in government structure, broad constitutional reform, or major diplomatic realignments that prompt domestic legal revisions, though such developments remain distant based on current institutional priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.

Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.

The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.

Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$47,056
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Islamic Penal Code and constitutional commitment to Sharia law continue to define marriage exclusively as a union between a man and a woman, with same-sex relations remaining criminalized and subject to severe penalties including death. This framework, reinforced by official statements and ongoing enforcement, underpins trader consensus that legalization is improbable within any foreseeable timeframe. No legislative proposals, judicial rulings, or policy shifts have emerged in recent years to alter these provisions. Realistic scenarios that could still influence the outcome include a fundamental change in government structure, broad constitutional reform, or major diplomatic realignments that prompt domestic legal revisions, though such developments remain distant based on current institutional priorities.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law.

Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline.

The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify.

Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$47,056
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Mar 17, 2026, 8:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the government of Iran legally recognizes marriage between two people of the same sex anywhere within Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Legal recognition refers to any law, constitutional amendment, or binding judicial decision that allows two adults of the same sex to marry with the same legal status as opposite-sex marriages under Iranian law. Recognition must apply within Iran’s legal system and permit same-sex couples to enter a legally valid marriage recognized by Iranian civil or religious authorities. The recognition must be in force by the listed deadline. The legalization of civil unions, domestic partnerships, or other forms of limited recognition that do not grant the legal status of marriage will not qualify. Recognition of marriages performed abroad without permitting such marriages to be performed within Iran will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"伊朗会将同性婚姻合法化吗?",概率为 2%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 2¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 2%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?"已产生 $47.1K 的总交易量(自Mar 18, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?"的当前领先者是"伊朗会将同性婚姻合法化吗?",仅有 2%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"伊朗会使同性婚姻合法化吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。