**Rebel groups, primarily the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and its JNIM ally, have intensified operations in northern Mali since their April 2026 offensive, recapturing Kidal and conducting repeated ambushes and attacks around Gao, Anefis, and supply routes.** These actions include major convoy strikes in July that inflicted heavy losses on Malian forces and Africa Corps partners, alongside public statements signaling intent to seize Gao and other northern cities. However, the Malian junta has retained control of Gao city itself through defensive operations, air strikes, drone strikes, and Russian-backed reinforcements, repelling or containing assaults while asserting that key positions remain secure. Recent developments, such as August prisoner exchanges mediated by regional actors like Niger and Togo, point to a grinding stalemate rather than decisive rebel advances toward urban capture. The FLA and JNIM exert stronger influence in surrounding rural areas and on logistics corridors but face sustained resistance in holding or expanding into major population centers. With the resolution deadline at the end of 2026 approaching, traders price the low likelihood of a full rebel takeover of Gao on the junta’s demonstrated ability to defend urban strongholds, the rebels’ pattern of hit-and-run tactics over sustained sieges, and the absence of breakthroughs in recent months despite escalated coordination.