Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has rapidly scaled its U.S. equity exposure to $5.52 billion by the end of 2025 through a concentrated portfolio emphasizing AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Its latest 13F-HR for Q4 2025 highlighted top positions in power and energy names such as Bloom Energy alongside semiconductor and Bitcoin-mining exposures, reflecting the fund’s core thesis that surging compute demand will reward utilities, data-center enablers, and related suppliers. Market-implied odds on whether the firm will initiate a new holding in its upcoming Q1 2026 filing—due mid-May—hinge on recent sector momentum, analyst estimate revisions for power-demand growth, and any disclosed capital inflows. Traders monitor upcoming earnings from comparable energy and tech-infrastructure companies as potential catalysts that could prompt portfolio adjustments before the 45-day reporting window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$121 交易量
2026-05-15
Constellation Energy
12%
Eaton
8%
GE Vernova
12%
MARA Holdings
9%
Micron
50%
Oklo
7%
Qualcomm
50%
TeraWulf
7%
Vertiv
18%
Vistra Energy
12%
$121 交易量
Constellation Energy
$0 交易量
12%
Eaton
$0 交易量
8%
GE Vernova
$0 交易量
12%
MARA Holdings
$0 交易量
9%
Micron
$50 交易量
50%
Oklo
$0 交易量
7%
Qualcomm
$54 交易量
50%
TeraWulf
$0 交易量
7%
Vertiv
$10 交易量
18%
Vistra Energy
$7 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has rapidly scaled its U.S. equity exposure to $5.52 billion by the end of 2025 through a concentrated portfolio emphasizing AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Its latest 13F-HR for Q4 2025 highlighted top positions in power and energy names such as Bloom Energy alongside semiconductor and Bitcoin-mining exposures, reflecting the fund’s core thesis that surging compute demand will reward utilities, data-center enablers, and related suppliers. Market-implied odds on whether the firm will initiate a new holding in its upcoming Q1 2026 filing—due mid-May—hinge on recent sector momentum, analyst estimate revisions for power-demand growth, and any disclosed capital inflows. Traders monitor upcoming earnings from comparable energy and tech-infrastructure companies as potential catalysts that could prompt portfolio adjustments before the 45-day reporting window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
市场开放时间： May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
交易量
$121结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has rapidly scaled its U.S. equity exposure to $5.52 billion by the end of 2025 through a concentrated portfolio emphasizing AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Its latest 13F-HR for Q4 2025 highlighted top positions in power and energy names such as Bloom Energy alongside semiconductor and Bitcoin-mining exposures, reflecting the fund’s core thesis that surging compute demand will reward utilities, data-center enablers, and related suppliers. Market-implied odds on whether the firm will initiate a new holding in its upcoming Q1 2026 filing—due mid-May—hinge on recent sector momentum, analyst estimate revisions for power-demand growth, and any disclosed capital inflows. Traders monitor upcoming earnings from comparable energy and tech-infrastructure companies as potential catalysts that could prompt portfolio adjustments before the 45-day reporting window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
交易量
$121结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, has rapidly scaled its U.S. equity exposure to $5.52 billion by the end of 2025 through a concentrated portfolio emphasizing AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Its latest 13F-HR for Q4 2025 highlighted top positions in power and energy names such as Bloom Energy alongside semiconductor and Bitcoin-mining exposures, reflecting the fund’s core thesis that surging compute demand will reward utilities, data-center enablers, and related suppliers. Market-implied odds on whether the firm will initiate a new holding in its upcoming Q1 2026 filing—due mid-May—hinge on recent sector momentum, analyst estimate revisions for power-demand growth, and any disclosed capital inflows. Traders monitor upcoming earnings from comparable energy and tech-infrastructure companies as potential catalysts that could prompt portfolio adjustments before the 45-day reporting window closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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