Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$88,312 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$88,312 Vol.
August 31
$81,644 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$88,312শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$88,312শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains military control over Abu Musa Island in the Persian Gulf, a position held since its 1971 seizure alongside the Tunb islands, which the UAE has consistently disputed through diplomatic channels including repeated calls for direct negotiations or referral to the International Court of Justice. The islands' location near the Strait of Hormuz gives them strategic value for maritime security and energy transit. Recent escalations in broader Iran-related conflicts during 2026 have included reported U.S. strikes on Abu Musa and Greater Tunb in mid-July, as well as earlier Emirati airstrikes, heightening focus on potential shifts in territorial control. Diplomatic backing for UAE claims has appeared in statements from the GCC and EU, though Iran has rejected such overtures and retained on-ground administration. No scheduled events or confirmed actions point to an imminent change in sovereignty as of mid-2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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