A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +2.0 °C and model ensembles favoring a very strong or historic peak by late fall. This ENSO forcing, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven recent monthly anomalies higher than earlier projections, positioning the 1.38–1.45 °C range as the consensus outcome. Official monitoring from NOAA and IRI highlights sustained equatorial Pacific warmth and atmospheric coupling, while preliminary August data runs align with these elevated levels rather than cooler baselines. Market-implied odds reflect the limited downside risk absent major model shifts or volcanic cooling before month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 66%
1.42–1.45ºC 32%
>1.45ºC 3.5%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$15,796 Vol.
$15,796 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
66%
1.42–1.45ºC
32%
>1.45ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC 66%
1.42–1.45ºC 32%
>1.45ºC 3.5%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
$15,796 Vol.
$15,796 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$642 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,447 Vol.
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,597 Vol.
1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$3,031 Vol.
66%
1.42–1.45ºC
$6,836 Vol.
32%
>1.45ºC
$1,243 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +2.0 °C and model ensembles favoring a very strong or historic peak by late fall. This ENSO forcing, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven recent monthly anomalies higher than earlier projections, positioning the 1.38–1.45 °C range as the consensus outcome. Official monitoring from NOAA and IRI highlights sustained equatorial Pacific warmth and atmospheric coupling, while preliminary August data runs align with these elevated levels rather than cooler baselines. Market-implied odds reflect the limited downside risk absent major model shifts or volcanic cooling before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
ভলিউম
$15,796শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +2.0 °C and model ensembles favoring a very strong or historic peak by late fall. This ENSO forcing, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven recent monthly anomalies higher than earlier projections, positioning the 1.38–1.45 °C range as the consensus outcome. Official monitoring from NOAA and IRI highlights sustained equatorial Pacific warmth and atmospheric coupling, while preliminary August data runs align with these elevated levels rather than cooler baselines. Market-implied odds reflect the limited downside risk absent major model shifts or volcanic cooling before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$15,796শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...A strong, rapidly intensifying El Niño event dominates trader sentiment for the August 2026 global temperature anomaly, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures exceeding +2.0 °C and model ensembles favoring a very strong or historic peak by late fall. This ENSO forcing, combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, has driven recent monthly anomalies higher than earlier projections, positioning the 1.38–1.45 °C range as the consensus outcome. Official monitoring from NOAA and IRI highlights sustained equatorial Pacific warmth and atmospheric coupling, while preliminary August data runs align with these elevated levels rather than cooler baselines. Market-implied odds reflect the limited downside risk absent major model shifts or volcanic cooling before month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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