The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation in May 2026 into E. Jean Carroll for possible perjury tied to her civil lawsuits against President Trump, which resolved with Trump paying roughly $5.6 million in damages after appeals were exhausted. This probe, reported by multiple outlets, represents the primary driver of trader consensus on a federal charging decision by year-end. No indictment has been filed as of mid-August, and procedural steps such as grand jury review or prosecutorial decisions remain pending. Historical patterns show federal perjury cases often move slowly, with many investigations concluding without charges. Key variables include the scope of evidence reviewed, any statements from the U.S. Attorney’s office overseeing the matter, and whether additional developments surface before December 31. The 50% implied probability reflects uncertainty around these investigative timelines.