Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$170,167 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
$170,167 Vol.
August 31
$161,275 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
ভলিউম
$170,167শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$170,167শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US and allied military operations targeting Iranian coastal defenses, missile sites, and nearby islands such as Greater Tunb and Qeshm have degraded Tehran’s ability to project power in the Strait of Hormuz but have not produced confirmed territorial changes on Farsi Island itself. Iranian forces continue to maintain operational presence across Gulf islands amid the broader conflict, with no verified reports of occupation, seizure, or handover by opposing actors. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low probability to loss of Iranian control by the August 31 resolution date, consistent with historical patterns where limited strikes rarely result in rapid sovereignty shifts without sustained ground campaigns. Potential catalysts before resolution include further escalation in naval engagements or diplomatic agreements altering battlefield dynamics, though structural barriers such as Iranian defensive preparations and geographic proximity to the mainland limit near-term reversal prospects.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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