**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal deportations in 2026 at 60.5% probability**, reflecting the current annualized pace of ICE removals under the second Trump administration. Through mid-2026 data points, removals have run at roughly 1,260 per day, projecting a full fiscal year total near 460k—well above FY2025 levels but below the administration’s stated 1 million annual target. Primary drivers include expanded ICE staffing and detention capacity, prioritization of criminal noncitizens, and continued interior enforcement operations. However, logistical constraints, ongoing court challenges, habeas petitions, and resource allocation have kept formal removal rates from scaling to higher brackets. Lower-probability outcomes above 500k or below 300k remain sidelined absent major shifts in funding, policy directives, or operational changes within the remainder of the calendar year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many people will Trump deport in 2026?
How many people will Trump deport in 2026?
400-500k 64%
300-400k 18%
500-600k 9.3%
>1m 3.2%
$122,674 Vol.
$122,674 Vol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
18%
400-500k
61%
500-600k
9%
600-700k
2%
700-800k
1%
800-900k
2%
900k-1m
1%
>1m
3%
400-500k 64%
300-400k 18%
500-600k 9.3%
>1m 3.2%
$122,674 Vol.
$122,674 Vol.
<200k
2%
200-300k
<1%
300-400k
18%
400-500k
61%
500-600k
9%
600-700k
2%
700-800k
1%
800-900k
2%
900k-1m
1%
>1m
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year.
The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus centers on 400-500k formal deportations in 2026 at 60.5% probability**, reflecting the current annualized pace of ICE removals under the second Trump administration. Through mid-2026 data points, removals have run at roughly 1,260 per day, projecting a full fiscal year total near 460k—well above FY2025 levels but below the administration’s stated 1 million annual target. Primary drivers include expanded ICE staffing and detention capacity, prioritization of criminal noncitizens, and continued interior enforcement operations. However, logistical constraints, ongoing court challenges, habeas petitions, and resource allocation have kept formal removal rates from scaling to higher brackets. Lower-probability outcomes above 500k or below 300k remain sidelined absent major shifts in funding, policy directives, or operational changes within the remainder of the calendar year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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