SpaceX’s packed May schedule of Falcon 9 missions, driven by rapid Starlink constellation replenishment and Falcon 9 first-stage reuse, underpins the near-even odds between 12 and 13 total launches. As of mid-May, four successful orbital flights have already occurred, with at least seven more Starlink and one Globalstar mission manifested through the final two weeks. Key differentiators include launch-window availability at Cape Canaveral SLC-40 and Vandenberg SLC-4E, weather constraints at the Eastern Range, and booster turnaround timelines that have repeatedly enabled three launches per week. Any scrub from technical anomalies or range conflicts could cap the count at 12, while flawless execution of the remaining manifest would push the total to 13 before May ends.