SpaceX has yet to complete a single Starship launch in 2026 as of mid-May, with Flight 12—the first V3 vehicle featuring upgraded Raptor engines and a new Starbase pad—now targeted for May 19 after repeated slips. Only five integrated flights occurred across all of 2025 amid ongoing anomalies, hardware testing, and regulatory reviews, establishing a pattern of deliberate iteration rather than rapid cadence. New infrastructure such as Pad 2 and expanded production capacity must come online while demonstrating orbital refueling and booster catch reliability, factors that historically limit yearly totals to single digits during major vehicle transitions. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to fewer than five successful space-reaching launches this year, with five-to-six remaining the next most favored outcome.