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বিশ্ব·মধ্যপ্রাচ্য

ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?

icon for ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?
বিশ্ব·মধ্যপ্রাচ্য

ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?

মোজতবা খামেনেই 82.2%

রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই 4.4%

রেজা পাহলাভি 3.4%

আলিরেজা আরাফি 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,628,405 Vol.

মোজতবা খামেনেই 82.2%

রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই 4.4%

রেজা পাহলাভি 3.4%

আলিরেজা আরাফি 2.4%

Polymarket

$38,628,405 Vol.

মোজতবা খামেনেই

$6,035,943 Vol.

82%

রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই

$1,148,676 Vol.

4%

রেজা পাহলাভি

$672,396 Vol.

3%

আলিরেজা আরাফি

$2,311,688 Vol.

2%

মাহমুদ আহমাদিনেজাদ

$1,120,634 Vol.

2%

হাসান রুহানি

$944,728 Vol.

1%

আহমদ বাহিদি

$776,835 Vol.

1%

হাসান খোমেনি

$1,425,383 Vol.

1%

মাসউদ পেজেশকিয়ান

$1,020,011 Vol.

1%

মোহাম্মদ-বাঘের ঘালিবাফ

$918,080 Vol.

1%

মুহাম্মাদ মীরবাকেরি

$437,515 Vol.

<1%

আব্বাস আরাঘচি

$833,512 Vol.

<1%

সাদেক লারিজানি

$535,395 Vol.

<1%

হাসান শরিয়তমাদারি

$3,143,856 Vol.

<1%

মরিয়ম রাজাভি

$804,694 Vol.

<1%

মাসউদ রাজাভি

$397,112 Vol.

<1%

সেইয়েদ হোসেইন মুসাভিয়ান

$3,694,285 Vol.

<1%

রেজা পিরজাদেহ

$145,282 Vol.

<1%

নাভিদ শোমালী

$211,166 Vol.

<1%

মুস্তাফা হিজরি

$199,090 Vol.

<1%

আলী মতাহারী

$835,738 Vol.

<1%

গোলাম-আলী হাদ্দাদ-আদেল

$433,132 Vol.

<1%

মোস্তাফা পৌরমুহাম্মাদি

$3,346,847 Vol.

<1%

সাদেগ মাহসুলি

$239,173 Vol.

<1%

সাঈদ জালিলি

$384,637 Vol.

<1%

মোহাম্মদ খাতামি

$5,191,729 Vol.

<1%

মোহসেন আরাকি

$281,722 Vol.

<1%

নাসির হোসেইনি

$254,387 Vol.

<1%

আহমাদ হোসেইনি খোরাসানি

$306,671 Vol.

<1%

আলী আসগর হেজাযি

$341,226 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability in this market because he was selected as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, amid US-Israeli strikes. Recent developments include his August 2026 appointments of senior military officials and the Supreme National Security Council secretary, alongside public statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirming his health and involvement in governance. These actions have reinforced trader views of regime continuity under the current incumbent. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others reflect the absence of any verified constitutional challenge or leadership vacuum through mid-August, though external military pressures and limited public appearances by Khamenei introduce some uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
ভলিউম
$38,628,405
শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 82% implied probability in this market because he was selected as Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, amid US-Israeli strikes. Recent developments include his August 2026 appointments of senior military officials and the Supreme National Security Council secretary, alongside public statements from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirming his health and involvement in governance. These actions have reinforced trader views of regime continuity under the current incumbent. Lower probabilities for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or others reflect the absence of any verified constitutional challenge or leadership vacuum through mid-August, though external military pressures and limited public appearances by Khamenei introduce some uncertainty ahead of year-end resolution.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
ভলিউম
$38,628,405
শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

সম্পর্কিত

icon for ২০২৬ সালে কি রেজা পাহলাভি ইরানকে নেতৃত্ব দেবেন?

২০২৬ সালে কি রেজা পাহলাভি ইরানকে নেতৃত্ব দেবেন?

3%
হ্যাঁ
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Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?

90%
icon for ২০২৭ সালের আগে ইরানি সরকার পতন হবে কি?

২০২৭ সালের আগে ইরানি সরকার পতন হবে কি?

7%
হ্যাঁ

বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।

সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা

"ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?" হলো Polymarket-এ 32 সম্ভাব্য ফলাফলসহ একটি প্রেডিকশন মার্কেট যেখানে ট্রেডাররা কী ঘটবে বলে বিশ্বাস করে তার ভিত্তিতে শেয়ার কেনাবেচা করে। বর্তমান শীর্ষ ফলাফল "মোজতবা খামেনেই" 82%-এ, তারপর "রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই" 4%-এ। দাম রিয়েল-টাইম ক্রাউড-সোর্সড সম্ভাবনা প্রতিফলিত করে। মার্কেট রেজোলিউশনে সঠিক ফলাফলের শেয়ার প্রতিটি $1-এ রিডিমযোগ্য।

আজ পর্যন্ত, "ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?" মোট $38.6 million ট্রেডিং ভলিউম তৈরি করেছে মার্কেট Feb 28, 2026-এ লঞ্চ হওয়ার পর থেকে। এই স্তরের ট্রেডিং অ্যাক্টিভিটি Polymarket কমিউনিটির শক্তিশালী এনগেজমেন্ট প্রতিফলিত করে এবং নিশ্চিত করতে সাহায্য করে যে বর্তমান অডস মার্কেট অংশগ্রহণকারীদের একটি গভীর পুল দ্বারা অবহিত। আপনি এই পেজে সরাসরি লাইভ মূল্য মুভমেন্ট ট্র্যাক করতে ও যেকোনো ফলাফলে ট্রেড করতে পারেন।

"ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?"-এ ট্রেড করতে, এই পেজে তালিকাভুক্ত 32 উপলব্ধ ফলাফল ব্রাউজ করুন। প্রতিটি ফলাফল মার্কেটের ইম্প্লায়েড প্রবাবিলিটি প্রতিনিধিত্ব করে একটি বর্তমান দাম দেখায়। পজিশন নিতে, আপনি যে ফলাফলকে সবচেয়ে সম্ভাবনাময় মনে করেন সেটি নির্বাচন করুন, এর পক্ষে "Yes" বা বিপক্ষে "No" বেছে নিন, আপনার পরিমাণ লিখুন এবং "Trade" ক্লিক করুন। মার্কেট রেজলভ হলে আপনার নির্বাচিত ফলাফল সঠিক হলে, আপনার "Yes" শেয়ার প্রতিটি $1 দেয়। ভুল হলে, $0 দেয়।

"ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?"-এর বর্তমান ফ্রন্টরানার "মোজতবা খামেনেই" 82%-এ, মানে মার্কেট সেই ফলাফলে 82% সম্ভাবনা নির্ধারণ করে। পরবর্তী নিকটতম ফলাফল "রাষ্ট্রপ্রধান নেই" 4%-এ। এই অডস রিয়েল-টাইমে আপডেট হয়।

"ইরানের নেতার ২০২৬ সালের সমাপ্তি?"-এর রেজোলিউশন নিয়ম সঠিকভাবে সংজ্ঞায়িত করে প্রতিটি ফলাফলকে বিজয়ী ঘোষণা করতে কী ঘটতে হবে — ফলাফল নির্ধারণে ব্যবহৃত অফিসিয়াল ডেটা সোর্স সহ। আপনি এই পেজের মন্তব্যের উপরে "Rules" সেকশনে সম্পূর্ণ রেজোলিউশন মানদণ্ড রিভিউ করতে পারেন।