**Joseph Aoun was elected Lebanon’s president in January 2025 with broad parliamentary backing, ending a prolonged vacancy, and has since pursued diplomatic engagement including a July 2026 White House meeting focused on ceasefire implementation and southern border issues.** His six-year term, standard under Lebanon’s constitutional framework for the Maronite Christian presidency, extends well beyond 2026, and recent activity shows continuity rather than disruption. Traders assign only a 4% chance of removal or resignation by year-end because no credible domestic or external pressures—such as parliamentary votes, major scandals, or acute security escalations—have emerged to threaten his position in the near term. The outcome remains subject to Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing dynamics and regional developments, though scheduled events like further diplomatic rounds or internal reform deadlines could test stability without necessarily triggering an early exit.