Traders see near-even odds between below-average (150-200 mm) and well-above-average (400-500 mm) August totals for Seoul because the month’s outcome hinges on whether lingering East Asian monsoon moisture and one or two typhoon tracks deliver heavy late-month rainfall. El Niño conditions, now favored at roughly 80% probability through August, often suppress overall monsoon strength yet can steer stronger tropical cyclones toward the peninsula, creating the observed bimodal market split. With roughly half the month elapsed amid ongoing heat-wave conditions and recent typhoon monitoring (including Dolphin and Peilou), additional model runs from the Korea Meteorological Administration and updated track forecasts in the coming week will determine whether totals trend toward the lower or upper cluster of outcomes.