In the run-up to Spain’s November 29 general election, trader consensus on the Lleida winner favors PSOE at 65.5 percent implied probability, ahead of ERC at 34.5 percent, with other parties at far lower levels. Recent national polling averages show PP leading overall, yet Catalonia-specific surveys indicate PSOE and ERC remain the main contenders for Lleida’s four congressional seats, with projections splitting them between one or two apiece alongside Junts. Final candidate lists published November 3 confirm PSC-PSOE headed by Cristina Morón, ERC by Inés Granollers, and Junts by Isidre Gavín, while the left’s fragmentation into separate Broad Front and other lists limits vote consolidation. These local dynamics, combined with PSOE’s 2023 seat advantage in the province, underpin the current market positioning ahead of the vote.