Traders assign a 99.6 percent probability that Donald Trump will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the substantial procedural and political hurdles to presidential removal on such a compressed timeline. No legislative actions have advanced impeachment proceedings, and the 25th Amendment has not been invoked, consistent with historical patterns requiring coordinated votes across the House, Senate, and cabinet. With no scheduled confirmation hearings, special sessions, or midterm-related developments in the immediate period, the market reflects constitutional safeguards and the absence of triggering events. A sudden health crisis or major legal ruling could still theoretically alter the outcome before the deadline, though such scenarios face tight timing constraints.