Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data from the Uēkahuna site show a pattern of summit deflation—2.5 microradians since early last Friday—followed by leveling and alternating weak inflation/deflation, shifting the Episode 53 forecast window to August 13–17. This matches the market’s leading 68% implied probability on “Aug 13 or later,” as deflation intervals of 2–3 days historically precede fountaining once magma recharge resumes. Continued vent glow and the abrupt post-Episode 52 inflation-to-deflation transition support eventual onset but indicate the current cycle remains delayed. Earlier model runs had narrowed the window to August 11–14, explaining the residual 30.5% on Aug 11–12 as traders weigh how quickly tilt rebounds. Upcoming daily HVO updates on summit deformation will likely drive any further adjustments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWhen will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
When will Kīlauea's Episode 53 begin?
Aug 13 or later 80%
Aug 11-12 33%
Aug 9-10 1.6%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
<1%
Aug 9-10
2%
Aug 11-12
33%
Aug 13 or later
68%
Aug 13 or later 80%
Aug 11-12 33%
Aug 9-10 1.6%
Aug 8 or earlier <1%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 1, 2026
Aug 8 or earlier
$427 Vol.
<1%
Aug 9-10
$1,191 Vol.
2%
Aug 11-12
$1,335 Vol.
33%
Aug 13 or later
$1,299 Vol.
68%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data from the Uēkahuna site show a pattern of summit deflation—2.5 microradians since early last Friday—followed by leveling and alternating weak inflation/deflation, shifting the Episode 53 forecast window to August 13–17. This matches the market’s leading 68% implied probability on “Aug 13 or later,” as deflation intervals of 2–3 days historically precede fountaining once magma recharge resumes. Continued vent glow and the abrupt post-Episode 52 inflation-to-deflation transition support eventual onset but indicate the current cycle remains delayed. Earlier model runs had narrowed the window to August 11–14, explaining the residual 30.5% on Aug 11–12 as traders weigh how quickly tilt rebounds. Upcoming daily HVO updates on summit deformation will likely drive any further adjustments.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
ভলিউম
$4,252শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data from the Uēkahuna site show a pattern of summit deflation—2.5 microradians since early last Friday—followed by leveling and alternating weak inflation/deflation, shifting the Episode 53 forecast window to August 13–17. This matches the market’s leading 68% implied probability on “Aug 13 or later,” as deflation intervals of 2–3 days historically precede fountaining once magma recharge resumes. Continued vent glow and the abrupt post-Episode 52 inflation-to-deflation transition support eventual onset but indicate the current cycle remains delayed. Earlier model runs had narrowed the window to August 11–14, explaining the residual 30.5% on Aug 11–12 as traders weigh how quickly tilt rebounds. Upcoming daily HVO updates on summit deformation will likely drive any further adjustments.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
ভলিউম
$4,252শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory tiltmeter data from the Uēkahuna site show a pattern of summit deflation—2.5 microradians since early last Friday—followed by leveling and alternating weak inflation/deflation, shifting the Episode 53 forecast window to August 13–17. This matches the market’s leading 68% implied probability on “Aug 13 or later,” as deflation intervals of 2–3 days historically precede fountaining once magma recharge resumes. Continued vent glow and the abrupt post-Episode 52 inflation-to-deflation transition support eventual onset but indicate the current cycle remains delayed. Earlier model runs had narrowed the window to August 11–14, explaining the residual 30.5% on Aug 11–12 as traders weigh how quickly tilt rebounds. Upcoming daily HVO updates on summit deformation will likely drive any further adjustments.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা