Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডRobert F. Kennedy Jr. 37.0%
Jamieson Greer 14.5%
Howard Lutnick 11.0%
Susie Wiles 10.6%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
37%
Jamieson Greer
15%
Howard Lutnick
11%
Susie Wiles
11%
Pete Hegseth
10%
Chris Wright
10%
None before 2027
8%
Mike Waltz
11%
John Ratcliffe
7%
Sean Duffy
4%
Kelly Loeffler
4%
Scott Turner
4%
J.D. Vance
4%
Linda McMahon
4%
Marco Rubio
2%
Lee Zeldin
8%
Doug Collins
1%
Scott Bessent
1%
Doug Burgum
8%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 37.0%
Jamieson Greer 14.5%
Howard Lutnick 11.0%
Susie Wiles 10.6%
নতুন
নতুন
Dec 31, 2026
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$453 Vol.
37%
Jamieson Greer
$189 Vol.
15%
Howard Lutnick
$385 Vol.
11%
Susie Wiles
$343 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$118 Vol.
10%
Chris Wright
$325 Vol.
10%
None before 2027
$301 Vol.
8%
Mike Waltz
$201 Vol.
11%
John Ratcliffe
$290 Vol.
7%
Sean Duffy
$278 Vol.
4%
Kelly Loeffler
$383 Vol.
4%
Scott Turner
$155 Vol.
4%
J.D. Vance
$280 Vol.
4%
Linda McMahon
$470 Vol.
4%
Marco Rubio
$225 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$233 Vol.
8%
Doug Collins
$202 Vol.
1%
Scott Bessent
$603 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$201 Vol.
8%
Russell T. Vought
$225 Vol.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$305 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$6,164শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
ভলিউম
$6,164শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cabinet turnover in the second Trump administration, including departures of officials such as the attorney general, homeland security secretary, labor secretary, and director of national intelligence, has sustained expectations of further changes through 2026. With leading outcomes clustered between 35% and 46%, traders appear to view several appointees as comparably exposed due to ongoing performance evaluations, agency frictions, and policy implementation challenges. This narrow spread reflects the absence of a single dominant signal distinguishing one contender, while developments such as confirmation hearings, internal administration reviews, public disagreements on priorities, or sudden resignations could widen gaps before the end of the year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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